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Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.