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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a high-stakes journey to the US capital to confer with US President Donald Trump. This marks the initial face-to-face encounter for the two leaders after an extended period of escalating strains and sharp exchanges.

Topics for Talks

The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are set to be high on the list of topics when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.

Background of Strained Relations

While the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a recent US military operation, Petro has since stated he feels there is a "genuine danger" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier remarked that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

Tuesday's summit comes after months of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has often criticised repeated US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's border policies.

"His stance shifted," Trump reportedly saying prior to the White House meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the trafficking of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to expand military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the region.

However, the acrimony seemed to dissipate after a "cordial" phone call between the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".

Diplomatic Bridge

According to insiders, a key figure – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker reportedly. "My hope is for our relationship to improve."

Regional Stability and the ELN

Prior to the meeting, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the discussion would focus on mutual US and Colombian concerns over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an extensive frontier.

A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, racketeering, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and reportedly works with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.

From the US perspective, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing security for US companies involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Experts note that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt investment plans by targeting foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past attempted in Colombia.

Drug War Cooperation

An similarly urgent matter for the two presidents will be the fight against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest source of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a halt on intelligence sharing with US authorities following comments from Washington.

The US has, conversely, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in combating drug trafficking. It has also imposed restrictions on Colombian officials, including the president and members of his family.

"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."

Potential Outcomes

But even with several issues for cooperation, the possibility for a confrontation exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."

For the Colombian leader, even a contentious meeting could be beneficial. His presidential term concludes soon, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his chosen candidate.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable situation," said a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well takes the air out of criticism... If talks sour, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favor."